Putting Up Numbers· NHL

The Kraken's goals on a back-to-back and with a day off or more

, ,

Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Kraken were 0.65 goals under on a back-to-back and 0.05 goals over with a day off or more over their last 165 games, 24 games against 139. The plain averages are 2.29 and 3.04, a difference of 0.75.

The Kraken's −0.70 on a back-to-back vs with a day off or more over expected ranks 28th of the 32 teams with 10 games on each side over their last 165 games.

goals a game over expected

A −0.70 difference in goals over expected on a back-to-back vs with a day off or more is rare: shuffle which games were on a back-to-back and it comes up less than once in 100.

A −0.75 difference in goals on a back-to-back vs with a day off or more is rare: shuffle which games were on a back-to-back and it comes up once in 100.

The games

on a back-to-backwith a day off or more
Seattle Kraken’s games, last 165 games, each marked on a back-to-back or with a day off or more
SideDateGameResultgoalsExpected
Nov 8, 2024vsVGKW42.93
Nov 12, 2024vsCBJW53.25
Nov 14, 2024vsCHIW33.51
Nov 16, 2024vsNYIW33.20
Nov 17, 2024vsNYRL03.23
Nov 20, 2024vsNSHW33.32
Nov 23, 2024@LAKL12.68
Nov 25, 2024@ANAW33.02
Nov 27, 2024vsANAL23.26
Nov 29, 2024@SJSL53.41
Nov 30, 2024vsSJSL23.68
Dec 3, 2024@CARW42.72
Dec 5, 2024@NYIW52.95
Dec 6, 2024@NJDL22.73
Dec 8, 2024@NYRW72.89
Dec 10, 2024vsFLAL12.86
Dec 12, 2024vsBOSW53.26
Dec 14, 2024vsTBLL12.96
Dec 17, 2024vsOTTL03.05
Dec 19, 2024@CHIL13.32
Dec 21, 2024@VGKL22.74
Dec 22, 2024@COLL22.82
Dec 28, 2024@VANW52.92
Dec 30, 2024vsUTAW53.12
Jan 2, 2025vsVANL33.17
Jan 4, 2025vsEDML23.09
Jan 6, 2025vsNJDL22.95
Jan 9, 2025@CBJL23.08
Jan 11, 2025@BUFW63.19
Jan 12, 2025@DETL22.99
Jan 14, 2025@PITW43.24
Jan 16, 2025@WPGL12.53
Jan 18, 2025vsLAKW42.85
Jan 20, 2025vsBUFW63.41
Jan 23, 2025vsWSHL03.03
Jan 25, 2025vsPITW43.47
Jan 27, 2025@EDML22.87
Jan 28, 2025vsANAL43.23
Jan 30, 2025vsSJSW63.61
Feb 2, 2025vsCGYL23.06
Feb 4, 2025vsDETL43.18
Feb 6, 2025vsTORL13.04
Feb 8, 2025@CGYW32.83
Feb 22, 2025@FLAW22.63
Feb 23, 2025@TBLL12.74
Feb 25, 2025@STLL22.80
Mar 1, 2025vsVANW63.12
Mar 4, 2025vsMINL33.04
Mar 6, 2025@NSHL33.10
Mar 8, 2025@PHIW43.18
Mar 9, 2025@WSHL22.78
Mar 12, 2025vsMTLW53.22
Mar 14, 2025vsUTAW43.13
Mar 16, 2025vsWPGL22.74
Mar 18, 2025@CHIW63.24
Mar 19, 2025@MINL02.87
Mar 22, 2025@EDML42.84
Mar 25, 2025@CGYL32.83
Mar 27, 2025vsEDMW63.03
Mar 29, 2025vsDALL13.01
Mar 31, 2025vsDALL13.01
Apr 2, 2025@VANW52.92
Apr 5, 2025@SJSW53.41
Apr 7, 2025@LAKW22.66
Apr 8, 2025@UTAL12.96
Apr 10, 2025@VGKL12.75
Apr 12, 2025vsSTLW42.99
Apr 15, 2025vsLAKL52.84
Oct 9, 2025vsANAW33.17
Oct 11, 2025vsVGKW22.83
Oct 14, 2025@MTLL42.77
Oct 16, 2025@OTTL32.75
Oct 18, 2025@TORW43.15
Oct 20, 2025@PHIL22.69
Oct 21, 2025@WSHL12.79
Oct 23, 2025@WPGW32.89
Oct 25, 2025vsEDMW33.08
Oct 28, 2025vsMTLL32.84
Nov 1, 2025vsNYRL22.87
Nov 3, 2025vsCHIW33.06
Nov 5, 2025vsSJSL13.23
Nov 8, 2025@STLW42.86
Nov 9, 2025@DALL12.70
Nov 11, 2025vsCBJL12.91
Nov 13, 2025vsWPGW52.92
Nov 15, 2025vsSJSW43.19
Nov 18, 2025@DETL22.87
Nov 20, 2025@CHIW33.00
Nov 22, 2025@PITW32.93
Nov 23, 2025@NYIL02.78
Nov 26, 2025vsDALL22.75
Nov 29, 2025vsEDML03.12
Dec 4, 2025@EDML43.00
Dec 6, 2025vsDETL32.92
Dec 8, 2025vsMINL12.86
Dec 10, 2025vsLAKW32.85
Dec 12, 2025@UTAL32.78
Dec 14, 2025vsBUFL12.81
Dec 16, 2025vsCOLL32.57
Dec 18, 2025@CGYL22.89
Dec 20, 2025@SJSW43.12
Dec 22, 2025@ANAW33.10
Dec 23, 2025@LAKW32.79
Dec 28, 2025vsPHIW42.72
Dec 29, 2025vsVANL23.39
Jan 1, 2026vsNSHW43.01
Jan 2, 2026@VANW43.29
Jan 5, 2026@CGYW52.84
Jan 6, 2026vsBOSW72.80
Jan 8, 2026vsMINL22.85
Jan 10, 2026@CARL22.64
Jan 12, 2026@NYRW42.78
Jan 14, 2026@NJDL22.83
Jan 15, 2026@BOSL22.81
Jan 17, 2026@UTAL32.78
Jan 19, 2026vsPITL32.99
Jan 21, 2026vsNYIW42.78
Jan 23, 2026vsANAL23.18
Jan 25, 2026vsNJDW42.87
Jan 27, 2026vsWSHW52.80
Jan 29, 2026vsTORW53.20
Jan 31, 2026@VGKW32.76
Feb 3, 2026@ANAL23.12
Feb 4, 2026@LAKW42.77
Feb 25, 2026@DALL12.70
Feb 26, 2026@STLL12.91
Feb 28, 2026vsVANW53.34
Mar 2, 2026vsCARW22.70
Mar 4, 2026vsSTLL22.96
Mar 7, 2026vsOTTL42.80
Mar 10, 2026vsNSHL23.04
Mar 12, 2026vsCOLL12.60
Mar 14, 2026@VANW53.28
Mar 15, 2026vsFLAW63.01
Mar 17, 2026vsTBLL22.70
Mar 19, 2026@NSHL12.99
Mar 21, 2026@CBJL22.83
Mar 24, 2026@FLAL42.97
Mar 26, 2026@TBLW42.61
Mar 28, 2026@BUFL22.74
Mar 31, 2026@EDML03.06
Apr 2, 2026vsUTAL22.86
Apr 4, 2026vsCHIL23.08
Apr 6, 2026@WPGL22.90
Apr 7, 2026@MINL22.78
Apr 9, 2026vsVGKW42.81
Apr 11, 2026vsCGYW42.92
Apr 13, 2026vsLAKL32.85
Apr 15, 2026@VGKL12.78
Apr 16, 2026@COLL02.55
Oct 1, 2026@CGYW63.17
Oct 3, 2026@EDML13.28
Oct 4, 2026vsCGYW63.23
Oct 6, 2026vsVGKL23.29
Oct 9, 2026@DETW63.21
Oct 11, 2026@WSHW53.27
Oct 13, 2026@PHIW33.27
Oct 15, 2026@TBLL33.28
Oct 17, 2026@FLAL33.25
Oct 20, 2026vsDETW43.32
Oct 22, 2026vsUTAW53.29
Oct 24, 2026vsMINL13.18
Oct 28, 2026vsTORW53.30
Oct 30, 2026@CGYL23.27
Nov 4, 2026vsCGYW23.33

Read next

Method

Read against .

  • Goals are the final score’s, as the league’s standings count them: a game decided in a shootout gives its winner one goal, so it reads as a one-goal game.
  • Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.17 in 2024-25, plus 0.05 in 2025-26, plus 0.15 in 2026-27 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
  • Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 65% in 2024-25, 60% in 2025-26, 18% in 2026-27 of the difference the model predicts.
  • The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
  • 2 games in 2025-26 and 2026-27 are neither on a back-to-back nor with a day off or more, and sit out.