The Kraken's goal differential on a back-to-back and with a day off or more
, ,
Through the Kraken's game on Apr 16, 2026.
Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Kraken were 1.28 goals under on a back-to-back and 0.12 goals over with a day off or more over their last 165 games, 25 games against 138. The plain averages are -1.56 and -0.12, a difference of 1.44.
The Kraken's −1.40 on a back-to-back vs with a day off or more over expected ranks 31st of the 32 teams with 10 games on each side over their last 165 games through Apr 16, 2026.
goal differential a game over expected
on a back-to-back
−1.28
with a day off or more
+0.12
-505
A −1.40 difference in goal differential over expected on a back-to-back vs with a day off or more is rare: shuffle which games were on a back-to-back and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
-1.56
-0.12
-505
A −1.44 difference in goal differential on a back-to-back vs with a day off or more is rare: shuffle which games were on a back-to-back and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
on a back-to-backwith a day off or more
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goal differential | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2024 | @ MIN | W | 1 | -0.31 | |
| Oct 8, 2024 | vs STL | L | -1 | -0.18 | |
| Oct 12, 2024 | @MIN | W | 1 | -0.39 | |
| Oct 13, 2024 | @ DAL | L | -2 | -0.76 | |
| Oct 15, 2024 | @ NSH | W | 4 | 0.03 | |
| Oct 17, 2024 | vs PHI | W | 2 | 0.48 | |
| Oct 19, 2024 | vs CGY | W | 1 | 0.20 | |
| Oct 22, 2024 | vs COL | L | -1 | -0.31 | |
| Oct 24, 2024 | vs WPG | L | -1 | -0.58 | |
| Oct 26, 2024 | vs CAR | L | -3 | -0.22 | |
| Oct 29, 2024 | @ MTL | W | 6 | -0.36 | |
| Oct 31, 2024 | @ TOR | L | -3 | -0.68 | |
| Nov 2, 2024 | @ OTT | L | -3 | -0.45 | |
| Nov 3, 2024 | @ BOS | L | -2 | 0.04 | |
| Nov 5, 2024 | @COL | L | -3 | -0.79 | |
| Nov 8, 2024 | vs VGK | W | 1 | -0.34 | |
| Nov 12, 2024 | vs CBJ | W | 3 | -0.02 | |
| Nov 14, 2024 | vs CHI | W | 2 | 0.69 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs NYI | W | 1 | 0.40 | |
| Nov 17, 2024 | vs NYR | L | -2 | 0.11 | |
| Nov 20, 2024 | vsNSH | W | 3 | 0.57 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ LAK | L | -1 | -0.78 | |
| Nov 25, 2024 | @ ANA | W | 1 | -0.07 | |
| Nov 27, 2024 | vsANA | L | -3 | 0.52 | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | @ SJS | L | -3 | 0.59 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vsSJS | L | -2 | 1.09 | |
| Dec 3, 2024 | @CAR | W | 2 | -0.83 | |
| Dec 5, 2024 | @NYI | W | 3 | -0.16 | |
| Dec 6, 2024 | @ NJD | L | -1 | -0.55 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | @NYR | W | 2 | -0.48 | |
| Dec 10, 2024 | vs FLA | L | -1 | -0.48 | |
| Dec 12, 2024 | vsBOS | W | 4 | 0.45 | |
| Dec 14, 2024 | vs TBL | L | -4 | -0.47 | |
| Dec 17, 2024 | vsOTT | L | -3 | 0.07 | |
| Dec 19, 2024 | @CHI | L | -2 | 0.25 | |
| Dec 21, 2024 | @VGK | L | -4 | -0.77 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | @COL | L | -3 | -0.79 | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | @ VAN | W | 1 | -0.28 | |
| Dec 30, 2024 | vs UTA | W | 3 | 0.11 | |
| Jan 2, 2025 | vsVAN | L | -1 | 0.28 | |
| Jan 4, 2025 | vs EDM | L | -2 | -0.20 | |
| Jan 6, 2025 | vsNJD | L | -1 | -0.03 | |
| Jan 9, 2025 | @CBJ | L | -4 | -0.41 | |
| Jan 11, 2025 | @ BUF | W | 4 | -0.33 | |
| Jan 12, 2025 | @ DET | L | -4 | -0.18 | |
| Jan 14, 2025 | @ PIT | W | 2 | -0.02 | |
| Jan 16, 2025 | @WPG | L | -1 | -1.10 | |
| Jan 18, 2025 | vsLAK | W | 2 | -0.31 | |
| Jan 20, 2025 | vsBUF | W | 2 | 0.23 | |
| Jan 23, 2025 | vs WSH | L | -3 | -0.31 | |
| Jan 25, 2025 | vsPIT | W | 3 | 0.48 | |
| Jan 27, 2025 | @EDM | L | -2 | -0.72 | |
| Jan 28, 2025 | vsANA | L | -2 | 0.50 | |
| Jan 30, 2025 | vsSJS | W | 4 | 0.97 | |
| Feb 2, 2025 | vsCGY | L | -1 | 0.24 | |
| Feb 4, 2025 | vsDET | L | -1 | 0.28 | |
| Feb 6, 2025 | vsTOR | L | -2 | -0.18 | |
| Feb 8, 2025 | @CGY | W | 1 | -0.32 | |
| Feb 22, 2025 | @FLA | W | 1 | -1.03 | |
| Feb 23, 2025 | @TBL | L | -3 | -1.01 | |
| Feb 25, 2025 | @STL | L | -5 | -0.63 | |
| Mar 1, 2025 | vsVAN | W | 3 | 0.20 | |
| Mar 4, 2025 | vsMIN | L | -1 | 0.16 | |
| Mar 6, 2025 | @NSH | L | -2 | 0.14 | |
| Mar 8, 2025 | @PHI | W | 3 | -0.05 | |
| Mar 9, 2025 | @WSH | L | -2 | -0.85 | |
| Mar 12, 2025 | vsMTL | W | 1 | 0.25 | |
| Mar 14, 2025 | vsUTA | W | 2 | 0.13 | |
| Mar 16, 2025 | vsWPG | L | -1 | -0.58 | |
| Mar 18, 2025 | @CHI | W | 4 | 0.13 | |
| Mar 19, 2025 | @MIN | L | -4 | -0.30 | |
| Mar 22, 2025 | @EDM | L | -1 | -0.73 | |
| Mar 25, 2025 | @CGY | L | -1 | -0.28 | |
| Mar 27, 2025 | vsEDM | W | 5 | -0.32 | |
| Mar 29, 2025 | vsDAL | L | -4 | -0.20 | |
| Mar 31, 2025 | vsDAL | L | -2 | -0.24 | |
| Apr 2, 2025 | @VAN | W | 5 | -0.36 | |
| Apr 5, 2025 | @SJS | W | 4 | 0.45 | |
| Apr 7, 2025 | @LAK | W | 1 | -0.81 | |
| Apr 8, 2025 | @UTA | L | -6 | -0.23 | |
| Apr 10, 2025 | @VGK | L | -1 | -0.82 | |
| Apr 12, 2025 | vsSTL | W | 1 | -0.22 | |
| Apr 15, 2025 | vsLAK | L | -1 | -0.26 | |
| Oct 9, 2025 | vsANA | W | 2 | -0.14 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vsVGK | W | 1 | -0.52 | |
| Oct 14, 2025 | @MTL | L | -1 | -0.70 | |
| Oct 16, 2025 | @OTT | L | -1 | -0.66 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @TOR | W | 1 | -0.08 | |
| Oct 20, 2025 | @PHI | L | -3 | -0.47 | |
| Oct 21, 2025 | @WSH | L | -3 | -0.55 | |
| Oct 23, 2025 | @WPG | W | 3 | -0.21 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vsEDM | W | 1 | -0.30 | |
| Oct 28, 2025 | vsMTL | L | -1 | -0.55 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vsNYR | L | -1 | -0.19 | |
| Nov 3, 2025 | vsCHI | W | 2 | 0.24 | |
| Nov 5, 2025 | vsSJS | L | -5 | 0.20 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @STL | W | 1 | -0.18 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | @DAL | L | -1 | -0.77 | |
| Nov 11, 2025 | vsCBJ | L | -1 | -0.29 | |
| Nov 13, 2025 | vsWPG | W | 2 | -0.05 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vsSJS | W | 3 | 0.06 | |
| Nov 18, 2025 | @DET | L | -2 | -0.27 | |
| Nov 20, 2025 | @CHI | W | 1 | 0.11 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @PIT | W | 1 | -0.63 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | @NYI | L | -1 | -0.36 | |
| Nov 26, 2025 | vsDAL | L | -1 | -0.62 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsEDM | L | -4 | -0.22 | |
| Dec 4, 2025 | @EDM | L | -5 | -0.35 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vsDET | L | -1 | -0.14 | |
| Dec 8, 2025 | vsMIN | L | -3 | -0.52 | |
| Dec 10, 2025 | vsLAK | W | 1 | -0.04 | |
| Dec 12, 2025 | @UTA | L | -2 | -0.56 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vsBUF | L | -2 | -0.67 | |
| Dec 16, 2025 | vsCOL | L | -2 | -1.01 | |
| Dec 18, 2025 | @CGY | L | -2 | 0.04 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | @SJS | W | 2 | -0.07 | |
| Dec 22, 2025 | @ANA | W | 2 | -0.29 | |
| Dec 23, 2025 | @LAK | W | 1 | -0.19 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | vsPHI | W | 3 | -0.42 | |
| Dec 29, 2025 | vsVAN | L | -1 | 0.62 | |
| Jan 1, 2026 | vsNSH | W | 3 | -0.12 | |
| Jan 2, 2026 | @VAN | W | 1 | 0.44 | |
| Jan 5, 2026 | @CGY | W | 4 | -0.07 | |
| Jan 6, 2026 | vsBOS | W | 3 | -0.50 | |
| Jan 8, 2026 | vsMIN | L | -1 | -0.56 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | @CAR | L | -1 | -1.03 | |
| Jan 12, 2026 | @NYR | W | 2 | -0.39 | |
| Jan 14, 2026 | @NJD | L | -1 | -0.23 | |
| Jan 15, 2026 | @BOS | L | -2 | -0.56 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | @UTA | L | -3 | -0.55 | |
| Jan 19, 2026 | vsPIT | L | -3 | -0.41 | |
| Jan 21, 2026 | vsNYI | W | 3 | -0.28 | |
| Jan 23, 2026 | vsANA | L | -2 | -0.08 | |
| Jan 25, 2026 | vsNJD | W | 2 | -0.14 | |
| Jan 27, 2026 | vsWSH | W | 4 | -0.52 | |
| Jan 29, 2026 | vsTOR | W | 3 | 0.03 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | @VGK | W | 1 | -0.66 | |
| Feb 3, 2026 | @ANA | L | -2 | -0.23 | |
| Feb 4, 2026 | @LAK | W | 2 | -0.21 | |
| Feb 25, 2026 | @DAL | L | -3 | -0.73 | |
| Feb 26, 2026 | @STL | L | -4 | -0.09 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | vsVAN | W | 4 | 0.54 | |
| Mar 2, 2026 | vsCAR | W | 1 | -0.92 | |
| Mar 4, 2026 | vsSTL | L | -1 | 0.00 | |
| Mar 7, 2026 | vsOTT | L | -3 | -0.48 | |
| Mar 10, 2026 | vsNSH | L | -2 | -0.04 | |
| Mar 12, 2026 | vsCOL | L | -4 | -0.98 | |
| Mar 14, 2026 | @VAN | W | 3 | 0.41 | |
| Mar 15, 2026 | vsFLA | W | 4 | -0.16 | |
| Mar 17, 2026 | vsTBL | L | -4 | -0.71 | |
| Mar 19, 2026 | @NSH | L | -2 | -0.18 | |
| Mar 21, 2026 | @CBJ | L | -3 | -0.40 | |
| Mar 24, 2026 | @FLA | L | -1 | -0.22 | |
| Mar 26, 2026 | @TBL | W | 1 | -0.94 | |
| Mar 28, 2026 | @BUF | L | -1 | -0.83 | |
| Mar 31, 2026 | @EDM | L | -3 | -0.38 | |
| Apr 2, 2026 | vsUTA | L | -4 | -0.38 | |
| Apr 4, 2026 | vsCHI | L | -2 | 0.31 | |
| Apr 6, 2026 | @WPG | L | -4 | -0.09 | |
| Apr 7, 2026 | @MIN | L | -3 | -0.67 | |
| Apr 9, 2026 | vsVGK | W | 1 | -0.52 | |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vsCGY | W | 3 | 0.10 | |
| Apr 13, 2026 | vsLAK | L | -2 | 0.01 | |
| Apr 15, 2026 | @VGK | L | -3 | -0.60 | |
| Apr 16, 2026 | @COL | L | -2 | -1.16 |
Method
- Goals are the final score’s, as the league’s standings count them: a game decided in a shootout gives its winner one goal, so it reads as a one-goal game.
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.22 in 2023-24, plus 0.33 in 2024-25, plus 0.10 in 2025-26 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 82% in 2023-24, 76% in 2024-25, 70% in 2025-26 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- 2 games in 2024-25 and 2025-26 are neither on a back-to-back nor with a day off or more, and sit out.