The Flames' goal differential at home and away
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Through the Flames' game on Apr 16, 2026.
Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Flames were 0.66 goals over at home and 1.01 goals under away in 2025-26, 41 games against 41. The plain averages are 0.32 and -1.46, a difference of 1.78.
The Flames' +1.67 at home vs away over expected ranks 1st of the 32 teams with 10 games on each side in 2025-26 through Apr 16.
goal differential a game over expected
at home
+0.66
away
−1.01
-50
A +1.67 difference in goal differential over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up once in 100.
plain
0.32
-1.46
-50
A +1.78 difference in goal differential at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up once in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goal differential | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2025 | @ EDM | W | 1 | -0.53 | |
| Oct 9, 2025 | @ VAN | L | -4 | 0.45 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs STL | L | -2 | -0.06 | |
| Oct 14, 2025 | vs VGK | L | -2 | -0.55 | |
| Oct 15, 2025 | @ UTA | L | -2 | -0.64 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @VGK | L | -5 | -0.65 | |
| Oct 20, 2025 | vs WPG | L | -1 | -0.07 | |
| Oct 22, 2025 | vs MTL | L | -1 | -0.63 | |
| Oct 24, 2025 | @WPG | L | -2 | -0.20 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | vs NYR | W | 4 | -0.35 | |
| Oct 28, 2025 | @ TOR | L | -1 | -0.12 | |
| Oct 30, 2025 | @ OTT | L | -1 | -0.74 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ NSH | L | -2 | -0.26 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | @ PHI | W | 1 | -0.61 | |
| Nov 5, 2025 | vs CBJ | W | 4 | -0.45 | |
| Nov 7, 2025 | vs CHI | L | -4 | 0.27 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | @ MIN | L | -2 | -0.76 | |
| Nov 11, 2025 | @STL | L | -1 | -0.23 | |
| Nov 13, 2025 | vs SJS | W | 2 | -0.00 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vsWPG | L | -1 | -0.07 | |
| Nov 18, 2025 | @CHI | L | -3 | 0.10 | |
| Nov 19, 2025 | @ BUF | W | 4 | -0.99 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs DAL | W | 1 | -0.73 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | @VAN | W | 3 | 0.33 | |
| Nov 26, 2025 | @ TBL | L | -4 | -0.93 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @ FLA | W | 2 | -0.35 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | @ CAR | L | -1 | -1.11 | |
| Dec 2, 2025 | @NSH | L | -4 | -0.23 | |
| Dec 4, 2025 | vsMIN | W | 3 | -0.70 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vsUTA | W | 2 | -0.56 | |
| Dec 8, 2025 | vsBUF | W | 3 | -0.83 | |
| Dec 10, 2025 | vs DET | L | -1 | -0.22 | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | @ LAK | W | 1 | -0.27 | |
| Dec 16, 2025 | @SJS | L | -3 | -0.06 | |
| Dec 18, 2025 | vs SEA | W | 2 | -0.04 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | vsVGK | W | 3 | -0.63 | |
| Dec 23, 2025 | @EDM | L | -4 | -0.44 | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vsEDM | W | 1 | -0.38 | |
| Dec 29, 2025 | vs BOS | W | 1 | -0.54 | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | vsPHI | W | 4 | -0.51 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | vsNSH | L | -1 | -0.13 | |
| Jan 5, 2026 | vsSEA | L | -4 | 0.07 | |
| Jan 7, 2026 | @MTL | L | -3 | -0.74 | |
| Jan 8, 2026 | @BOS | L | -3 | -0.62 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | @ PIT | W | 1 | -0.71 | |
| Jan 13, 2026 | @CBJ | L | -2 | -0.49 | |
| Jan 15, 2026 | @CHI | W | 2 | 0.01 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | vs NYI | W | 2 | -0.34 | |
| Jan 19, 2026 | vs NJD | L | -1 | -0.16 | |
| Jan 21, 2026 | vsPIT | L | -3 | -0.49 | |
| Jan 23, 2026 | vs WSH | L | -2 | -0.50 | |
| Jan 25, 2026 | vs ANA | L | -1 | -0.17 | |
| Jan 29, 2026 | @MIN | L | -3 | -0.75 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | vsSJS | W | 1 | 0.01 | |
| Feb 2, 2026 | vsTOR | L | -2 | 0.04 | |
| Feb 4, 2026 | vsEDM | W | 1 | -0.38 | |
| Feb 26, 2026 | @SJS | W | 3 | -0.17 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | @LAK | L | -2 | -0.22 | |
| Mar 1, 2026 | @ANA | L | -1 | -0.32 | |
| Mar 3, 2026 | vsDAL | L | -5 | -0.63 | |
| Mar 5, 2026 | vsOTT | L | -3 | -0.56 | |
| Mar 7, 2026 | vsCAR | W | 1 | -1.00 | |
| Mar 9, 2026 | @WSH | L | -4 | -0.61 | |
| Mar 10, 2026 | @NYR | L | -4 | -0.36 | |
| Mar 12, 2026 | @NJD | W | 1 | -0.35 | |
| Mar 14, 2026 | @NYI | L | -1 | -0.44 | |
| Mar 16, 2026 | @DET | L | -3 | -0.33 | |
| Mar 18, 2026 | vsSTL | W | 1 | -0.11 | |
| Mar 20, 2026 | vsFLA | W | 3 | -0.22 | |
| Mar 22, 2026 | vsTBL | W | 1 | -0.87 | |
| Mar 24, 2026 | vsLAK | W | 1 | -0.12 | |
| Mar 26, 2026 | vsANA | L | -1 | -0.17 | |
| Mar 28, 2026 | vsVAN | W | 4 | 0.46 | |
| Mar 30, 2026 | @ COL | L | -7 | -1.16 | |
| Apr 2, 2026 | @VGK | L | -3 | -0.68 | |
| Apr 4, 2026 | @ANA | W | 2 | -0.37 | |
| Apr 7, 2026 | @DAL | L | -1 | -0.84 | |
| Apr 9, 2026 | @COL | L | -2 | -1.24 | |
| Apr 11, 2026 | @SEA | L | -3 | -0.10 | |
| Apr 12, 2026 | vsUTA | W | 3 | -0.58 | |
| Apr 14, 2026 | vsCOL | L | -2 | -1.09 | |
| Apr 16, 2026 | vsLAK | W | 2 | -0.14 |
Method
- Goals are the final score’s, as the league’s standings count them: a game decided in a shootout gives its winner one goal, so it reads as a one-goal game.
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2025-26 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.10 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 70% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.