Putting Up Numbers· NHL

The Capitals' penalty minutes at home and away

, ,

Through the Capitals' game on Oct 24, 2026.

Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Capitals were 1.5 penalty minutes under at home and 2.2 penalty minutes over away over their last 165 games, 84 games against 81. The plain averages are 7.4 and 11.3, a difference of 3.9.

The Capitals' −3.7 at home vs away over expected ranks 32nd of the 32 teams with 10 games on each side over their last 165 games through Oct 24, 2026.

penalty minutes a game over expected

A −3.7 difference in penalty minutes over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up once in 100.

A −3.9 difference in penalty minutes at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.

The games

at homeaway
Washington Capitals’ games, last 165 games, each marked at home or away
SideDateGameResultpenalty minutesExpected
Nov 23, 2024vsNJDL178.0
Nov 25, 2024@FLAW1010.5
Nov 27, 2024@TBLW119.6
Nov 29, 2024vsNYIW47.4
Nov 30, 2024@NJDW108.5
Dec 3, 2024vsSJSL188.8
Dec 6, 2024@TORW48.8
Dec 7, 2024@MTLW49.1
Dec 12, 2024@CBJW108.5
Dec 14, 2024vsBUFW99.5
Dec 16, 2024@DALL118.9
Dec 17, 2024@CHIL68.4
Dec 20, 2024vsCARW68.9
Dec 22, 2024vsLAKW28.4
Dec 23, 2024@BOSL129.6
Dec 28, 2024@TORW48.8
Dec 29, 2024@DETL88.8
Dec 31, 2024vsBOSW109.2
Jan 2, 2025vsMINL48.2
Jan 4, 2025vsNYRW88.2
Jan 6, 2025@BUFL89.9
Jan 8, 2025vsVANW149.1
Jan 10, 2025vsMTLL68.7
Jan 11, 2025@NSHW69.7
Jan 14, 2025vsANAW28.5
Jan 16, 2025@OTTW109.9
Jan 18, 2025vsPITW68.0
Jan 21, 2025@EDMW68.9
Jan 23, 2025@SEAW28.9
Jan 25, 2025@VANL69.6
Jan 28, 2025@CGYW109.8
Jan 30, 2025@OTTL610.0
Feb 1, 2025vsWPGL69.3
Feb 4, 2025vsFLAW410.2
Feb 6, 2025@PHIW48.5
Feb 9, 2025vsUTAL29.6
Feb 22, 2025@PITW68.3
Feb 23, 2025vsEDMW68.5
Feb 25, 2025vsCGYL69.5
Feb 27, 2025vsSTLL29.6
Mar 1, 2025vsTBLL89.3
Mar 3, 2025vsOTTW179.5
Mar 5, 2025@NYRW168.5
Mar 7, 2025vsDETW118.4
Mar 9, 2025vsSEAW288.1
Mar 11, 2025@ANAW48.8
Mar 13, 2025@LAKL108.6
Mar 15, 2025@SJSW169.2
Mar 18, 2025vsDETW08.6
Mar 20, 2025vsPHIW28.1
Mar 22, 2025vsFLAW810.1
Mar 25, 2025@WPGL69.6
Mar 27, 2025@MINL48.5
Mar 30, 2025vsBUFL129.5
Apr 1, 2025@BOSW119.6
Apr 2, 2025@CARL748.3
Apr 4, 2025vsCHIW28.1
Apr 6, 2025@NYIL47.7
Apr 10, 2025vsCARW78.9
Apr 12, 2025@CBJL488.0
Apr 13, 2025vsCBJL118.2
Apr 15, 2025@NYIW87.7
Apr 17, 2025@PITL48.4
Apr 21, 2025vsMTLW88.7
Apr 23, 2025vsMTLW88.7
Apr 25, 2025@MTLL248.8
Apr 27, 2025@MTLW109.0
Apr 30, 2025vsMTLW48.8
May 6, 2025vsCARL68.9
May 8, 2025vsCARW68.9
May 10, 2025@CARL189.1
May 12, 2025@CARL89.2
May 15, 2025vsCARL48.9
Oct 8, 2025vsBOSL410.2
Oct 11, 2025@NYIW48.8
Oct 12, 2025@NYRW47.9
Oct 14, 2025vsTBLW812.0
Oct 17, 2025vsMINW49.2
Oct 19, 2025vsVANL118.6
Oct 21, 2025vsSEAW48.1
Oct 24, 2025@CBJW68.0
Oct 25, 2025vsOTTL129.6
Oct 28, 2025@DALL89.0
Oct 31, 2025vsNYIL88.4
Nov 1, 2025@BUFL2510.5
Nov 5, 2025vsSTLW118.0
Nov 6, 2025@PITL109.0
Nov 8, 2025@TBLL2312.1
Nov 11, 2025@CARW178.8
Nov 13, 2025@FLAL811.0
Nov 15, 2025vsNJDL67.6
Nov 17, 2025vsLAKW68.3
Nov 19, 2025vsEDMW69.3
Nov 20, 2025@MTLW1010.6
Nov 22, 2025vsTBLL1112.0
Nov 24, 2025vsCBJW47.6
Nov 26, 2025vsWPGW68.0
Nov 28, 2025vsTORW08.2
Nov 30, 2025@NYIW68.8
Dec 2, 2025@LAKW98.6
Dec 3, 2025@SJSW88.7
Dec 5, 2025@ANAL1010.1
Dec 7, 2025vsCBJW67.6
Dec 11, 2025vsCARL98.6
Dec 13, 2025@WPGL68.4
Dec 16, 2025@MINL89.5
Dec 18, 2025vsTORW108.1
Dec 20, 2025vsDETL48.7
Dec 21, 2025@DETL49.0
Dec 23, 2025vsNYRL87.5
Dec 27, 2025@NJDW68.0
Dec 29, 2025@FLAL1211.0
Dec 31, 2025vsNYRW77.5
Jan 1, 2026@OTTL179.9
Jan 3, 2026vsCHIL48.6
Jan 5, 2026vsANAW169.7
Jan 7, 2026vsDALL118.6
Jan 9, 2026@CHIW88.9
Jan 11, 2026@NSHL128.8
Jan 13, 2026vsMTLW2310.0
Jan 15, 2026vsSJSL68.4
Jan 17, 2026vsFLAL610.7
Jan 19, 2026@COLL128.7
Jan 21, 2026@VANL109.0
Jan 23, 2026@CGYW169.9
Jan 24, 2026@EDML89.6
Jan 27, 2026@SEAL138.3
Jan 29, 2026@DETW49.0
Jan 31, 2026vsCARW48.7
Feb 2, 2026vsNYIW98.3
Feb 3, 2026@PHIL1610.3
Feb 5, 2026vsNSHW88.5
Feb 25, 2026vsPHIW410.1
Feb 27, 2026vsVGKW48.2
Feb 28, 2026@MTLL810.6
Mar 3, 2026vsUTAL49.3
Mar 7, 2026@BOSL1210.4
Mar 9, 2026vsCGYW09.8
Mar 11, 2026@PHIL1010.4
Mar 12, 2026@BUFW410.8
Mar 14, 2026vsBOSL1210.1
Mar 18, 2026vsOTTW69.7
Mar 20, 2026vsNJDW47.6
Mar 22, 2026vsCOLL48.4
Mar 24, 2026@STLL288.1
Mar 26, 2026@UTAW329.2
Mar 28, 2026@VGKW88.5
Mar 31, 2026vsPHIW129.9
Apr 2, 2026@NJDL167.8
Apr 4, 2026vsBUFW2010.2
Apr 5, 2026@NYRL237.6
Apr 8, 2026@TORW68.5
Apr 11, 2026@PITW09.1
Apr 12, 2026vsPITW48.7
Apr 14, 2026@CBJW08.1
Oct 2, 2026@CARW149.3
Oct 3, 2026@TBLL259.4
Oct 7, 2026vsPITW89.2
Oct 9, 2026vsNYRW69.4
Oct 11, 2026vsSEAL49.7
Oct 13, 2026@CARL129.3
Oct 14, 2026vsMTLW89.7
Oct 17, 2026vsNJDW89.3
Oct 20, 2026vsLAKL410.0
Oct 24, 2026vsBUFW49.3

Read next

Method

Read against .

  • Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.3 in 2024-25, minus 0.3 in 2025-26, minus 0.2 in 2026-27 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
  • Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 64% in 2024-25, 71% in 2025-26, 14% in 2026-27 of the difference the model predicts.
  • The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
  • Read against the season’s ratings as of Nov 4, 2026; the games are the ones through Oct 24.