Zach Metsa’s points at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed defensemen, Zach Metsa was 0.01 points over at home and 0.04 points over away in 2026-27, 7 games against 6. The plain averages are 0.14 and 0.17, a difference of 0.02. All 3 games without Rasmus Dahlin were away.
6 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
at home
+0.01
away
+0.04
00.5
A −0.02 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.14
0.17
00.51
A −0.02 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | @ CBJ | L | 0 | 0.14 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs CHI | W | 1 | 0.17 | |
| Oct 6, 2026 | vs MIN | W | 0 | 0.09 | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | vs DAL | L | 0 | 0.12 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs UTA | L | 0 | 0.15 | |
| Oct 12, 2026 | vs FLA | W | 0 | 0.10 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | @ MTL | L | 0 | 0.13 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | @ TOR | W | 1 | 0.14 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @MTL | L | 0 | 0.14 | |
| Oct 21, 2026 | vs PHI | L | 0 | 0.16 | |
| Oct 27, 2026 | @ SJS | W | 0 | 0.12 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ LAK | W | 0 | 0.12 | |
| Nov 4, 2026 | vs OTT | L | 0 | 0.12 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed defensemen in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.00 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for defensemen that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s defensemen’ points in his games, 6%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 98% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.