Victor Olofsson’s points at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Victor Olofsson was 0.01 points over at home and 0.48 points over away in 2026-27, 2 games against 2. The plain averages are 1.00 and 1.50, a difference of 0.50.
2 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
at home
+0.01
away
+0.48
00.51
A −0.46 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
1.00
1.50
11.52
A −0.50 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | vs CHI | W | 1 | 0.95 | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | vs ANA | L | 1 | 1.03 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ VAN | W | 1 | 1.18 | |
| Oct 6, 2026 | @ SEA | W | 2 | 0.87 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.00 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ points in his games, 13%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 97% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.