Putting Up Numbers· NHL

Tyler Toffoli’s points at home and away

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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Tyler Toffoli was 0.46 points under at home and 0.14 points over away in 2026-27, 8 games against 9. The plain averages are 0.25 and 0.78, a difference of 0.53.

8 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.

points a game over expected

A −0.60 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.

A −0.53 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.

The games

at homeaway
Tyler Toffoli’s games, 2026-27, each marked at home or away
SideDateGameResultpointsExpected
Oct 1, 2026vsFLAW00.61
Oct 3, 2026vsLAKW20.72
Oct 5, 2026@DALL00.52
Oct 8, 2026@STLW20.68
Oct 10, 2026vsEDML00.66
Oct 13, 2026vsBOSL00.51
Oct 15, 2026@NSHW10.64
Oct 17, 2026@DETL00.68
Oct 19, 2026@TORL10.69
Oct 20, 2026@MTLW10.63
Oct 22, 2026@OTTW10.64
Oct 24, 2026@BOSL10.50
Oct 27, 2026vsBUFL00.80
Oct 29, 2026vsVANW00.98
Oct 31, 2026vsOTTL00.69
Nov 2, 2026vsCGYL00.75
Nov 4, 2026@LAKL00.77

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Method

  • Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.00 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ points in his games, 11%.
  • Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 97% of the difference the model predicts.
  • The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.