Tomas Hertl’s points at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Tomas Hertl was 0.46 points under at home and 0.70 points over away in 2026-27, 9 games against 8. The plain averages are 0.11 and 1.25, a difference of 1.14. Both back-to-backs were away.
8 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
at home
−0.46
away
+0.70
02
A −1.16 difference in points over expected at home vs away is unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up once in 100.
plain
0.11
1.25
01234
A −1.14 difference in points at home vs away is unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 2 times in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | vs CHI | W | 0 | 0.63 | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | vs ANA | L | 1 | 0.68 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ VAN | W | 0 | 0.78 | |
| Oct 6, 2026 | @ SEA | W | 4 | 0.58 | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | vs TOR | W | 0 | 0.53 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs LAK | W | 0 | 0.61 | |
| Oct 12, 2026 | @ MIN | L | 1 | 0.37 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | @ NSH | W | 1 | 0.49 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | vs CGY | W | 0 | 0.53 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs PIT | W | 0 | 0.58 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | vs TBL | L | 0 | 0.52 | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | @ STL | L | 0 | 0.56 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ CBJ | L | 1 | 0.58 | |
| Oct 27, 2026 | vs OTT | W | 0 | 0.52 | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | vs NJD | L | 0 | 0.49 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | @ BOS | L | 1 | 0.41 | |
| Nov 3, 2026 | @PIT | W | 2 | 0.61 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.00 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ points in his games, 9%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 97% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.