Stuart Skinner’s saves at home and away
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Against his share of what goalies usually saved against his opponents, Stuart Skinner was 1.0 saves over at home and 1.1 saves over away in 2026-27, 4 games against 7. The plain averages are 24.0 and 23.6, a difference of 0.4. Expected was 0.5 saves higher at home than away.
4 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
saves a game over expected
at home
+1.0
away
+1.1
-10010
A −0.0 difference in saves over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
24.0
23.6
2030
A +0.4 difference in saves at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | saves | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | vs BOS | L | 26 | 20.7 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ DET | W | 34 | 23.6 | |
| Oct 7, 2026 | vs COL | W | 32 | 23.9 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | vs MIN | W | 19 | 25.2 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | @ CHI | L | 24 | 19.0 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | @ STL | L | 26 | 21.8 | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | @ DAL | L | 35 | 19.9 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs MTL | L | 19 | 22.2 | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | @ TBL | L | 16 | 24.2 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ CAR | L | 12 | 27.0 | |
| Nov 3, 2026 | @MTL | W | 18 | 22.2 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed goalies in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.0 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for goalies that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s goalies’ saves in his games, 92%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 100% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.