Steven Stamkos’ points at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Steven Stamkos was 0.01 points over at home and 0.12 points over away in 2026-27, 10 games against 5. The plain averages are 1.00 and 1.20, a difference of 0.20. All 4 division games were at home. All 4 games vs teams over .500 were at home.
5 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
at home
+0.01
away
+0.12
-101
A −0.11 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
1.00
1.20
0123
A −0.20 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | vs MIN | L | 1 | 0.78 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs DAL | W | 1 | 0.80 | |
| Oct 6, 2026 | @ TOR | L | 2 | 1.06 | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | @ MTL | W | 2 | 1.00 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ OTT | L | 1 | 1.14 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | vs VGK | L | 0 | 0.92 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | vs SJS | L | 1 | 1.20 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs STL | W | 2 | 1.09 | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | @ BOS | L | 0 | 0.90 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ PIT | L | 1 | 1.27 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs COL | W | 3 | 1.02 | |
| Oct 27, 2026 | vs NYI | L | 1 | 0.92 | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | vs WSH | L | 0 | 1.29 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs TBL | W | 1 | 1.01 | |
| Nov 3, 2026 | vs CAR | W | 0 | 0.83 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.00 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ points in his games, 18%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 97% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.