Sidney Crosby’s points at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Sidney Crosby was 0.37 points under at home and 0.27 points over away in 2026-27, 7 games against 8. The plain averages are 0.29 and 1.00, a difference of 0.71. All 3 division games were away.
7 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
at home
−0.37
away
+0.27
012
A −0.65 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.29
1.00
0123
A −0.71 difference in points at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 15 times in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | @ PHI | W | 1 | 0.71 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs MTL | W | 1 | 0.64 | |
| Oct 5, 2026 | vs WPG | L | 0 | 0.86 | |
| Oct 7, 2026 | @ WSH | L | 0 | 0.83 | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | @ CBJ | L | 0 | 0.77 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs DAL | W | 0 | 0.53 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | @ CHI | L | 2 | 0.83 | |
| Oct 16, 2026 | @ COL | L | 1 | 0.72 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ VGK | L | 1 | 0.59 | |
| Oct 19, 2026 | @ UTA | L | 0 | 0.69 | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | vs FLA | W | 0 | 0.61 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs NSH | W | 1 | 0.66 | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | vsUTA | L | 0 | 0.70 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @MTL | L | 3 | 0.67 | |
| Nov 3, 2026 | vsVGK | L | 0 | 0.60 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.00 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ points in his games, 11%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 97% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.