Seth Jarvis’ points at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Seth Jarvis was 0.44 points over at home and 0.12 points over away in 2026-27, 3 games against 3. The plain averages are 1.33 and 1.00, a difference of 0.33.
3 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
at home
+0.44
away
+0.12
01
A +0.32 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
1.33
1.00
00.511.52
A +0.33 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2026 | @ EDM | L | 1 | 0.83 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ STL | W | 2 | 0.89 | |
| Oct 27, 2026 | vs BOS | W | 0 | 0.71 | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | vs CBJ | W | 2 | 0.94 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs WPG | W | 2 | 1.03 | |
| Nov 3, 2026 | @ NSH | L | 0 | 0.91 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.00 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ points in his games, 15%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 97% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.