Sergei Bobrovsky’s saves at home and away
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Against his share of what goalies usually saved against his opponents, Sergei Bobrovsky was 1.4 saves over at home and 3.3 saves over away in 2026-27, 7 games against 4. The plain averages are 25.3 and 27.8, a difference of 2.5. All 3 division games were at home.
4 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
saves a game over expected
at home
+1.4
away
+3.3
-10010
A −1.9 difference in saves over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
25.3
27.8
203040
A −2.5 difference in saves at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | saves | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | vs MTL | L | 21 | 23.9 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs OTT | L | 26 | 22.6 | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | @ VGK | L | 40 | 24.1 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ COL | W | 30 | 26.0 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | vs BUF | L | 30 | 24.5 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs NYI | L | 16 | 23.1 | |
| Oct 19, 2026 | vs SJS | W | 30 | 24.5 | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | vs NYR | W | 21 | 22.3 | |
| Oct 26, 2026 | @ CGY | L | 29 | 25.2 | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | @ SEA | L | 12 | 22.6 | |
| Nov 3, 2026 | vs UTA | L | 33 | 26.2 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed goalies in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.0 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for goalies that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s goalies’ saves in his games, 100%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 100% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.