Sebastian Aho’s points at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Sebastian Aho was 0.02 points under at home and 0.39 points over away in 2026-27, 7 games against 10. The plain averages are 1.00 and 1.40, a difference of 0.40. All 3 back-to-backs were away.
7 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
at home
−0.02
away
+0.39
-1012
A −0.41 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
1.00
1.40
0123
A −0.40 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | vs FLA | L | 0 | 0.93 | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | vs WSH | L | 1 | 1.11 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ PHI | W | 3 | 1.00 | |
| Oct 6, 2026 | @ MTL | W | 3 | 0.85 | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | vs VAN | W | 1 | 1.32 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ CHI | W | 1 | 1.10 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @PHI | W | 2 | 1.00 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | vsWSH | W | 2 | 1.06 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ WPG | W | 0 | 1.14 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ CGY | L | 1 | 1.04 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | @VAN | W | 0 | 1.32 | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | @ EDM | L | 2 | 0.86 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ STL | W | 2 | 0.92 | |
| Oct 27, 2026 | vs BOS | W | 1 | 0.73 | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | vs CBJ | W | 0 | 0.97 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vsWPG | W | 2 | 1.06 | |
| Nov 3, 2026 | @ NSH | L | 0 | 0.94 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.00 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ points in his games, 15%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 97% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.