Sam Reinhart’s points at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Sam Reinhart was 0.25 points over at home and 0.25 points under away in 2026-27, 5 games against 10. The plain averages are 1.20 and 0.70, a difference of 0.50. Both back-to-backs were away.
5 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
at home
+0.25
away
−0.25
-1012
A +0.51 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
1.20
0.70
0123
A +0.50 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | @ CAR | W | 0 | 0.70 | |
| Oct 1, 2026 | @ SJS | L | 0 | 0.93 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ ANA | L | 0 | 1.11 | |
| Oct 6, 2026 | @ LAK | W | 0 | 1.04 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs MIN | L | 0 | 0.62 | |
| Oct 12, 2026 | @ BUF | L | 2 | 1.00 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | @ CBJ | W | 3 | 0.78 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | vs VAN | W | 1 | 1.26 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs SEA | W | 2 | 0.97 | |
| Oct 21, 2026 | @ OTT | L | 0 | 0.93 | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | @ PIT | L | 0 | 1.04 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ CHI | W | 1 | 1.01 | |
| Oct 27, 2026 | @ WPG | W | 1 | 1.00 | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | vsWPG | W | 2 | 1.01 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | vs DET | L | 1 | 0.87 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.00 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ points in his games, 14%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 97% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.