Ryan McDonagh’s points at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed defensemen, Ryan McDonagh was 0.07 points under at home and 0.08 points over away in 2026-27, 7 games against 7. The plain averages are 0.14 and 0.29, a difference of 0.14.
7 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
at home
−0.07
away
+0.08
00.5
A −0.15 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.14
0.29
00.51
A −0.14 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | @ NYR | L | 0 | 0.24 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs WSH | W | 0 | 0.19 | |
| Oct 5, 2026 | vs PHI | W | 0 | 0.25 | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | vs MIN | W | 0 | 0.15 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ NYI | W | 1 | 0.16 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | @NYR | L | 0 | 0.23 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | vs SEA | W | 0 | 0.17 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs VAN | W | 0 | 0.30 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | @ VGK | W | 0 | 0.17 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | @ COL | L | 0 | 0.21 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ UTA | L | 1 | 0.22 | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | vs WPG | W | 0 | 0.27 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ NSH | L | 0 | 0.20 | |
| Nov 3, 2026 | vs DET | W | 1 | 0.15 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed defensemen in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.00 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for defensemen that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s defensemen’ points in his games, 10%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 98% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.