Patrick Kane’s points at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Patrick Kane was 0.11 points under at home and 0.25 points under away in 2026-27, 9 games against 6. The plain averages are 0.67 and 0.50, a difference of 0.17. All 3 games without Spencer Knight in net were away.
6 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
at home
−0.11
away
−0.25
-0.500.51
A +0.14 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.67
0.50
00.511.52
A +0.17 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | @ VGK | L | 1 | 0.66 | |
| Oct 1, 2026 | @ UTA | L | 0 | 0.83 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ BUF | L | 0 | 0.89 | |
| Oct 6, 2026 | vs STL | W | 0 | 0.78 | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | @ NYI | L | 1 | 0.70 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs CAR | L | 0 | 0.62 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | vs PIT | W | 1 | 0.83 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | vs WPG | W | 2 | 0.92 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs DAL | L | 0 | 0.61 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | vs MTL | L | 1 | 0.79 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs FLA | L | 1 | 0.72 | |
| Oct 27, 2026 | vs LAK | W | 1 | 0.93 | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | @ DET | L | 0 | 0.84 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ BOS | L | 1 | 0.56 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | vs COL | L | 0 | 0.82 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.00 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ points in his games, 13%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 97% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.