Nathan MacKinnon’s points at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Nathan MacKinnon was 1.06 points over at home and 0.16 points under away in 2026-27, 8 games against 8. The plain averages are 2.25 and 1.13, a difference of 1.13.
8 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
at home
+1.06
away
−0.16
02
A +1.22 difference in points over expected at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 12 times in 100.
plain
2.25
1.13
01234
A +1.13 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | vs LAK | W | 2 | 1.31 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs STL | W | 3 | 1.18 | |
| Oct 7, 2026 | @ WPG | L | 0 | 1.54 | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | @ CGY | W | 3 | 1.32 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs TOR | L | 2 | 1.28 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | @ DAL | W | 2 | 0.88 | |
| Oct 14, 2026 | vsDAL | L | 0 | 0.91 | |
| Oct 16, 2026 | vs PIT | W | 4 | 1.34 | |
| Oct 19, 2026 | @ PHI | L | 0 | 1.38 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | @ NJD | L | 0 | 1.11 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | vs TBL | W | 4 | 1.06 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ NSH | L | 1 | 1.22 | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | vsNJD | W | 1 | 1.07 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsCGY | W | 2 | 1.35 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | @ CHI | W | 1 | 1.45 | |
| Nov 3, 2026 | @ CBJ | L | 2 | 1.36 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.00 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ points in his games, 20%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 97% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.