Matty Beniers’ points at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Matty Beniers was 0.26 points over at home and 0.10 points under away in 2026-27, 7 games against 8. The plain averages are 0.71 and 0.38, a difference of 0.34. Both games vs teams over .500 were at home.
7 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
at home
+0.26
away
−0.10
01
A +0.37 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.71
0.38
00.511.52
A +0.34 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | @ CGY | W | 2 | 0.48 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ EDM | L | 0 | 0.46 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vsCGY | W | 1 | 0.48 | |
| Oct 6, 2026 | vs VGK | L | 0 | 0.39 | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | @ DET | W | 0 | 0.45 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ WSH | W | 0 | 0.52 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | @ PHI | W | 0 | 0.52 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | @ TBL | L | 1 | 0.44 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ FLA | L | 0 | 0.43 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | vsDET | W | 0 | 0.50 | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | vs UTA | W | 1 | 0.46 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs MIN | L | 0 | 0.34 | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | vs TOR | W | 2 | 0.45 | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | @CGY | L | 0 | 0.51 | |
| Nov 4, 2026 | vsCGY | W | 1 | 0.52 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.00 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ points in his games, 8%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 97% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.