Mackenzie Blackwood’s saves at home and away
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Against his share of what goalies usually saved against his opponents, Mackenzie Blackwood was 0.6 saves under at home and 2.0 saves under away in 2026-27, 7 games against 4. The plain averages are 25.0 and 20.5, a difference of 4.5.
4 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
saves a game over expected
at home
−0.6
away
−2.0
-505
A +1.4 difference in saves over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
25.0
20.5
202530
A +4.5 difference in saves at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 11 times in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | saves | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | vs LAK | W | 27 | 25.0 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs STL | W | 25 | 23.7 | |
| Oct 7, 2026 | @ WPG | L | 16 | 25.7 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs TOR | L | 17 | 25.0 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | @ DAL | W | 24 | 22.3 | |
| Oct 16, 2026 | vs PIT | W | 30 | 24.3 | |
| Oct 19, 2026 | @ PHI | L | 21 | 21.2 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | vs TBL | W | 31 | 25.7 | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | vs NJD | W | 20 | 29.8 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs CGY | W | 25 | 25.5 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | @ CHI | W | 21 | 20.8 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed goalies in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.0 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for goalies that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s goalies’ saves in his games, 100%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 100% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.