Lukas Dostal’s saves at home and away
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Against his share of what goalies usually saved against his opponents, Lukas Dostal was 1.2 saves over at home and 0.0 saves under away in 2026-27, 5 games against 4. The plain averages are 23.6 and 23.3, a difference of 0.4. Expected was 0.9 saves lower at home than away.
4 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
saves a game over expected
at home
+1.2
away
−0.0
-505
A +1.2 difference in saves over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
23.6
23.3
15202530
A +0.4 difference in saves at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | saves | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | @ VGK | W | 27 | 24.7 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs FLA | W | 29 | 25.0 | |
| Oct 7, 2026 | vs EDM | L | 12 | 21.7 | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | @ WPG | W | 16 | 25.5 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | vs CGY | L | 32 | 24.7 | |
| Oct 16, 2026 | vs BOS | L | 18 | 22.8 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | @ NYI | L | 22 | 22.5 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ PHI | W | 28 | 20.5 | |
| Oct 27, 2026 | vs VAN | L | 27 | 17.8 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed goalies in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.0 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for goalies that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s goalies’ saves in his games, 99%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 100% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.