Linus Ullmark’s saves at home and away
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Against his share of what goalies usually saved against his opponents, Linus Ullmark was 1.8 saves under at home and 0.4 saves under away in 2026-27, 4 games against 4. The plain averages are 20.3 and 22.8, a difference of 2.5.
4 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
saves a game over expected
at home
−1.8
away
−0.4
-100
A −1.4 difference in saves over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
20.3
22.8
10152025
A −2.5 difference in saves at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | saves | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ TOR | W | 27 | 23.1 | |
| Oct 5, 2026 | @ BOS | W | 10 | 21.8 | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | vs PHI | W | 28 | 19.7 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs NSH | W | 16 | 22.1 | |
| Oct 12, 2026 | @ NJD | W | 29 | 27.7 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | vs NYI | W | 20 | 21.7 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @PHI | L | 25 | 19.9 | |
| Oct 21, 2026 | vs FLA | W | 17 | 24.7 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed goalies in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.0 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for goalies that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s goalies’ saves in his games, 95%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 100% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.