Leon Draisaitl’s points at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Leon Draisaitl was 0.22 points over at home and 0.57 points over away in 2026-27, 8 games against 8. The plain averages are 1.63 and 2.00, a difference of 0.38.
8 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
at home
+0.22
away
+0.57
024
A −0.35 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
1.63
2.00
024
A −0.38 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | vs VAN | L | 1 | 2.01 | |
| Oct 1, 2026 | @VAN | W | 3 | 1.88 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs SEA | W | 1 | 1.69 | |
| Oct 7, 2026 | @ ANA | W | 4 | 1.71 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ SJS | W | 0 | 1.48 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | @ LAK | W | 2 | 1.56 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | vs UTA | L | 1 | 1.41 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @UTA | W | 2 | 1.29 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | vs MIN | W | 2 | 0.88 | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | vs CAR | W | 5 | 0.96 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs TOR | L | 2 | 1.40 | |
| Oct 26, 2026 | vs DET | L | 1 | 1.39 | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | vs CGY | W | 0 | 1.49 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ NYI | W | 2 | 1.12 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ NYR | W | 2 | 1.16 | |
| Nov 3, 2026 | @ NJD | L | 1 | 1.23 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.00 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ points in his games, 22%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 97% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.