Kyle Palmieri’s points at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Kyle Palmieri was 0.11 points under at home and 0.03 points under away in 2026-27, 7 games against 7. The plain averages are 0.29 and 0.29, a difference of 0.00. Expected was 0.08 points higher at home than away.
7 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
at home
−0.11
away
−0.03
00.51
A −0.08 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.29
0.29
00.511.52
A 0.00 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | @ TOR | L | 0 | 0.36 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs NJD | W | 0 | 0.29 | |
| Oct 6, 2026 | @ NYR | L | 0 | 0.30 | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | vs CHI | W | 0 | 0.42 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs TBL | L | 0 | 0.33 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | vs VAN | W | 2 | 0.51 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | @ OTT | L | 0 | 0.36 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @TOR | W | 1 | 0.34 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | vs ANA | W | 0 | 0.44 | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | vs LAK | L | 0 | 0.41 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ DAL | L | 1 | 0.25 | |
| Oct 27, 2026 | @ NSH | W | 0 | 0.33 | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | @ MIN | W | 0 | 0.24 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs EDM | L | 0 | 0.35 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.00 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ points in his games, 6%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 97% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.