Kirill Kaprizov’s points at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Kirill Kaprizov was 0.29 points over at home and 0.13 points under away in 2026-27, 5 games against 12. The plain averages are 1.60 and 1.50, a difference of 0.10. Expected was 0.31 points lower at home than away. Both back-to-backs were away. Both games vs teams at .500 or under were away.
5 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
at home
+0.29
away
−0.13
02
A +0.41 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
1.60
1.50
01234
A +0.10 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | @ NSH | W | 1 | 1.41 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs BOS | W | 2 | 1.11 | |
| Oct 6, 2026 | @ BUF | L | 0 | 1.75 | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | @ TBL | L | 1 | 1.44 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ FLA | W | 4 | 1.32 | |
| Oct 12, 2026 | vs VGK | W | 1 | 1.20 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | @ WPG | L | 2 | 1.85 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | vs STL | W | 3 | 1.39 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs CBJ | W | 1 | 1.56 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | @ EDM | L | 2 | 1.38 | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | @ CGY | L | 0 | 1.71 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ SEA | W | 2 | 1.79 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ VAN | W | 2 | 2.14 | |
| Oct 27, 2026 | @ UTA | W | 2 | 1.50 | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | vs NYI | L | 1 | 1.30 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ WSH | W | 1 | 1.64 | |
| Nov 3, 2026 | @ PHI | W | 1 | 1.57 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.00 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ points in his games, 24%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 97% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.