Karel Vejmelka’s saves at home and away
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Against his share of what goalies usually saved against his opponents, Karel Vejmelka was 2.5 saves under at home and 2.0 saves under away in 2026-27, 5 games against 6. The plain averages are 21.2 and 21.3, a difference of 0.1. Expected was 0.4 saves higher at home than away. Both division games were at home. Both games vs teams over .500 were at home.
5 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
saves a game over expected
at home
−2.5
away
−2.0
-50
A −0.6 difference in saves over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
21.2
21.3
15202530
A −0.1 difference in saves at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | saves | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | vs CHI | W | 15 | 20.6 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ NYR | L | 18 | 22.2 | |
| Oct 6, 2026 | @ NJD | W | 30 | 28.7 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ BUF | W | 23 | 24.6 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | vs TOR | W | 22 | 24.3 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | @ EDM | W | 22 | 21.1 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsEDM | L | 12 | 21.6 | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | @ SEA | L | 20 | 21.8 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs TBL | W | 29 | 25.6 | |
| Oct 27, 2026 | vs MIN | L | 28 | 26.4 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ PHI | L | 15 | 21.3 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed goalies in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.0 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for goalies that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s goalies’ saves in his games, 99%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 100% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.