Juuse Saros’ saves at home and away
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Against his share of what goalies usually saved against his opponents, Juuse Saros was 1.3 saves over at home and 8.6 saves over away in 2026-27, 8 games against 3. The plain averages are 26.0 and 32.3, a difference of 6.3. All 3 division games were at home. Both games vs teams over .500 were at home.
3 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
saves a game over expected
at home
+1.3
away
+8.6
-505
A −7.3 difference in saves over expected at home vs away is unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 2 times in 100.
plain
26.0
32.3
202530
A −6.3 difference in saves at home vs away is unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 2 times in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | saves | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | vs MIN | L | 27 | 26.8 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs DAL | W | 29 | 22.0 | |
| Oct 6, 2026 | @ TOR | L | 32 | 24.0 | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | @ MTL | W | 31 | 23.2 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | vs VGK | L | 20 | 25.3 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | vs SJS | L | 30 | 24.1 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs STL | W | 24 | 23.8 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ PIT | L | 34 | 24.0 | |
| Oct 27, 2026 | vs NYI | L | 24 | 22.5 | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | vs WSH | L | 25 | 23.9 | |
| Nov 3, 2026 | vs CAR | W | 29 | 29.1 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed goalies in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.0 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for goalies that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s goalies’ saves in his games, 100%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 100% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.