Joseph Woll’s saves at home and away
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Against his share of what goalies usually saved against his opponents, Joseph Woll was 0.7 saves over at home and 3.2 saves over away in 2026-27, 4 games against 4. The plain averages are 27.0 and 28.5, a difference of 1.5.
4 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
saves a game over expected
at home
+0.7
away
+3.2
0510
A −2.6 difference in saves over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
27.0
28.5
25303540
A −1.5 difference in saves at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | saves | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | @ NJD | L | 41 | 28.3 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs CAR | L | 37 | 28.6 | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | @ OTT | L | 24 | 22.7 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vsCAR | L | 26 | 29.3 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | @ DET | L | 24 | 26.2 | |
| Oct 19, 2026 | vs COL | W | 24 | 26.4 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs ANA | L | 21 | 21.1 | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | @ WSH | L | 25 | 23.9 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed goalies in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.0 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for goalies that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s goalies’ saves in his games, 100%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 100% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.