Jordan Binnington’s saves at home and away
, ,
Against his share of what goalies usually saved against his opponents, Jordan Binnington was 4.0 saves under at home and 0.0 saves under away in 2026-27, 2 games against 2. The plain averages are 19.5 and 24.5, a difference of 5.0. Both division games were away. Both games outside the division were at home.
2 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
saves a game over expected
at home
−4.0
away
−0.0
-50
A −3.9 difference in saves over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
19.5
24.5
202530
A −5.0 difference in saves at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | saves | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ COL | L | 30 | 26.0 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs CBJ | W | 20 | 22.9 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ NSH | L | 19 | 23.0 | |
| Oct 27, 2026 | vs MTL | L | 19 | 24.0 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed goalies in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.0 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for goalies that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s goalies’ saves in his games, 100%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 100% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.