John Tavares’ points at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, John Tavares was 0.17 points over at home and 0.22 points over away in 2026-27, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 1.00 and 1.00, a difference of 0.00. Expected was 0.06 points higher at home than away. All 3 division games were at home.
2 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
at home
+0.17
away
+0.22
-0.500.51
A −0.06 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
1.00
1.00
00.511.52
A 0.00 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | vs MTL | L | 1 | 0.85 | |
| Sep 30, 2026 | vs NYI | W | 0 | 0.75 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs OTT | L | 1 | 0.88 | |
| Oct 6, 2026 | vs NSH | W | 1 | 0.75 | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | @ VGK | L | 0 | 0.71 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | @ UTA | L | 2 | 0.85 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | vs BUF | L | 2 | 0.95 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.00 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ points in his games, 14%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 97% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.