John Gibson’s saves at home and away
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Against his share of what goalies usually saved against his opponents, John Gibson was 0.4 saves under at home and 8.9 saves under away in 2026-27, 8 games against 3. The plain averages are 20.8 and 12.0, a difference of 8.8. All 6 first-half games were at home.
3 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
saves a game over expected
at home
−0.4
away
−8.9
-100
A +8.5 difference in saves over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
20.8
12.0
102030
A +8.8 difference in saves at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | saves | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | vs NYR | L | 19 | 19.8 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs WPG | L | 24 | 22.2 | |
| Oct 6, 2026 | vs OTT | W | 22 | 20.1 | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | vs SEA | L | 10 | 19.6 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | vs NJD | L | 32 | 25.5 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs SJS | W | 31 | 21.5 | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | @ VAN | W | 4 | 16.7 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ CGY | L | 21 | 22.7 | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | vs CHI | W | 18 | 18.3 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs STL | L | 10 | 21.8 | |
| Nov 3, 2026 | @ TBL | L | 11 | 23.2 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed goalies in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.0 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for goalies that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s goalies’ saves in his games, 88%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 100% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.