Jet Greaves’ saves at home and away
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Against his share of what goalies usually saved against his opponents, Jet Greaves was 0.5 saves under at home and 5.1 saves under away in 2026-27, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 23.8 and 20.0, a difference of 3.8.
3 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
saves a game over expected
at home
−0.5
away
−5.1
-100
A +4.6 difference in saves over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
23.8
20.0
15202530
A +3.8 difference in saves at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | saves | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | vs BUF | W | 23 | 24.6 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs UTA | L | 27 | 26.3 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ STL | L | 22 | 23.6 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs NYR | W | 31 | 21.4 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | vs TOR | L | 14 | 24.7 | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | @ CAR | L | 24 | 29.0 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ DAL | L | 14 | 22.8 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed goalies in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.0 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for goalies that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s goalies’ saves in his games, 99%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 100% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.