Jeremy Swayman’s saves at home and away
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Against his share of what goalies usually saved against his opponents, Jeremy Swayman was 0.7 saves under at home and 0.7 saves over away in 2026-27, 6 games against 6. The plain averages are 23.0 and 25.7, a difference of 2.7.
6 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
saves a game over expected
at home
−0.7
away
+0.7
-10010
A −1.4 difference in saves over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
23.0
25.7
2030
A −2.7 difference in saves at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | saves | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | vs NYR | W | 24 | 22.1 | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | @ WPG | W | 30 | 24.8 | |
| Oct 5, 2026 | vs OTT | L | 20 | 22.6 | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | vs UTA | W | 36 | 26.0 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs PHI | W | 14 | 21.6 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | @ SJS | W | 35 | 23.8 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ LAK | W | 25 | 25.1 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | @ DAL | L | 22 | 22.5 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsSJS | W | 23 | 24.6 | |
| Oct 27, 2026 | @ CAR | L | 28 | 29.1 | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | @ STL | L | 14 | 24.5 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | vs VGK | W | 21 | 25.3 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed goalies in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.0 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for goalies that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s goalies’ saves in his games, 100%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 100% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.