Jake Allen’s saves at home and away
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Against his share of what goalies usually saved against his opponents, Jake Allen was 1.3 saves under at home and 2.7 saves over away in 2026-27, 5 games against 3. The plain averages are 22.4 and 28.0, a difference of 5.6. Both back-to-backs were away.
3 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
saves a game over expected
at home
−1.3
away
+2.7
-10010
A −4.0 difference in saves over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
22.4
28.0
203040
A −5.6 difference in saves at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | saves | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | vs PHI | W | 23 | 21.0 | |
| Oct 6, 2026 | vs UTA | L | 26 | 26.7 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs VAN | W | 20 | 18.4 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | @ DET | W | 23 | 26.3 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ WSH | L | 21 | 24.2 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | vs COL | W | 31 | 26.0 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs LAK | W | 12 | 26.2 | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | @COL | L | 40 | 25.4 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed goalies in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.0 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for goalies that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s goalies’ saves in his games, 100%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 100% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.