Jack Hughes’ points at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Jack Hughes was 0.10 points over at home and 0.10 points over away in 2026-27, 9 games against 6. The plain averages are 1.33 and 1.17, a difference of 0.17. Both back-to-backs were away.
6 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
at home
+0.10
away
+0.10
-101
A +0.00 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
1.33
1.17
0123
A +0.17 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | vs PHI | W | 1 | 1.27 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ NYI | L | 0 | 1.06 | |
| Oct 6, 2026 | vs UTA | L | 1 | 1.15 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs VAN | W | 2 | 1.63 | |
| Oct 12, 2026 | vs OTT | L | 1 | 1.19 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | @ DET | W | 3 | 1.10 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | vs NYR | W | 1 | 0.88 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ WSH | L | 0 | 1.34 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | vs COL | W | 0 | 1.16 | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | vs ANA | W | 2 | 1.44 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs LAK | W | 1 | 1.27 | |
| Oct 27, 2026 | @ DAL | W | 2 | 0.76 | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | @COL | L | 0 | 1.19 | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | @ VGK | W | 2 | 0.94 | |
| Nov 3, 2026 | vs EDM | W | 3 | 1.06 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.00 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ points in his games, 19%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 97% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.