Isak Rosén’s points at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Isak Rosén was 0.04 points under at home and 0.06 points under away in 2026-27, 7 games against 8. The plain averages are 0.14 and 0.13, a difference of 0.02. Both back-to-backs were away.
7 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
at home
−0.04
away
−0.06
00.5
A +0.03 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.14
0.13
00.51
A +0.02 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | vs BOS | L | 0 | 0.14 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ DET | W | 0 | 0.20 | |
| Oct 5, 2026 | @ PIT | W | 0 | 0.22 | |
| Oct 7, 2026 | vs COL | W | 0 | 0.20 | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | vs ANA | L | 0 | 0.25 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | vs MIN | W | 0 | 0.12 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | @ CHI | L | 1 | 0.23 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs CAR | L | 0 | 0.15 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | @ STL | L | 0 | 0.20 | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | @ DAL | L | 0 | 0.14 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs MTL | L | 1 | 0.20 | |
| Oct 27, 2026 | vs FLA | L | 0 | 0.19 | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | @ TBL | L | 0 | 0.18 | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | @FLA | L | 0 | 0.18 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @CAR | L | 0 | 0.16 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.00 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ points in his games, 3%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 97% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.