Ilya Sorokin’s saves at home and away
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Against his share of what goalies usually saved against his opponents, Ilya Sorokin was 0.5 saves over at home and 2.3 saves over away in 2026-27, 6 games against 4. The plain averages are 23.3 and 26.8, a difference of 3.4.
4 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
saves a game over expected
at home
+0.5
away
+2.3
-50510
A −1.8 difference in saves over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
23.3
26.8
2030
A −3.4 difference in saves at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | saves | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | @ TOR | L | 24 | 24.5 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs NJD | W | 37 | 28.6 | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | vs CHI | W | 22 | 20.4 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs TBL | L | 21 | 26.5 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | vs VAN | W | 24 | 18.2 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @TOR | W | 28 | 24.3 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | vs ANA | W | 15 | 21.6 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ DAL | L | 32 | 21.8 | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | @ MIN | W | 23 | 27.1 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs EDM | L | 21 | 21.4 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed goalies in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.0 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for goalies that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s goalies’ saves in his games, 100%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 100% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.