Igor Shesterkin’s saves at home and away
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Against his share of what goalies usually saved against his opponents, Igor Shesterkin was 0.2 saves under at home and 4.6 saves under away in 2026-27, 3 games against 2. The plain averages are 22.7 and 16.5, a difference of 6.2.
2 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
saves a game over expected
at home
−0.2
away
−4.6
-50
A +4.4 difference in saves over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
22.7
16.5
152025
A +6.2 difference in saves at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | saves | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | @ BOS | L | 20 | 20.6 | |
| Oct 1, 2026 | vs TBL | W | 23 | 23.8 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs UTA | W | 28 | 23.9 | |
| Oct 6, 2026 | vs NYI | W | 17 | 20.8 | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | @ WSH | L | 13 | 21.6 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed goalies in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.0 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for goalies that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s goalies’ saves in his games, 90%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 100% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.