Evgeni Malkin’s points at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Evgeni Malkin was 0.58 points over at home and 0.39 points under away in 2026-27, 5 games against 8. The plain averages are 1.40 and 0.50, a difference of 0.90. All 3 division games were away.
5 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
at home
+0.58
away
−0.39
-1012
A +0.97 difference in points over expected at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 9 times in 100.
plain
1.40
0.50
0123
A +0.90 difference in points at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 19 times in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | @ PHI | W | 1 | 0.87 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs MTL | W | 3 | 0.79 | |
| Oct 5, 2026 | vs WPG | L | 0 | 1.06 | |
| Oct 7, 2026 | @ WSH | L | 0 | 1.01 | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | @ CBJ | L | 1 | 0.94 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs DAL | W | 0 | 0.65 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | @ CHI | L | 0 | 1.02 | |
| Oct 16, 2026 | @ COL | L | 1 | 0.89 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ VGK | L | 1 | 0.72 | |
| Oct 19, 2026 | @ UTA | L | 0 | 0.85 | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | vs FLA | W | 2 | 0.75 | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | vsUTA | L | 2 | 0.86 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @MTL | L | 0 | 0.82 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.00 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ points in his games, 14%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 97% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.