Evan Bouchard’s points at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed defensemen, Evan Bouchard was 0.16 points over at home and 0.57 points over away in 2026-27, 8 games against 8. The plain averages are 1.50 and 2.00, a difference of 0.50.
8 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
at home
+0.16
away
+0.57
02
A −0.41 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
1.50
2.00
024
A −0.50 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | vs VAN | L | 5 | 1.83 | |
| Oct 1, 2026 | @VAN | W | 3 | 1.91 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs SEA | W | 0 | 1.18 | |
| Oct 7, 2026 | @ ANA | W | 3 | 1.32 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ SJS | W | 1 | 1.15 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | @ LAK | W | 2 | 1.33 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | vs UTA | L | 1 | 1.53 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @UTA | W | 1 | 1.53 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | vs MIN | W | 2 | 1.04 | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | vs CAR | W | 1 | 0.76 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs TOR | L | 2 | 1.59 | |
| Oct 26, 2026 | vs DET | L | 0 | 1.15 | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | vs CGY | W | 1 | 1.68 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ NYI | W | 1 | 1.18 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ NYR | W | 3 | 1.44 | |
| Nov 3, 2026 | @ NJD | L | 2 | 1.59 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed defensemen in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.00 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for defensemen that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s defensemen’ points in his games, 65%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 98% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.