Elias Pettersson’s points at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Elias Pettersson was 0.28 points over at home and 0.10 points under away in 2026-27, 8 games against 9. The plain averages are 1.25 and 0.89, a difference of 0.36. Both games vs teams over .500 were at home.
8 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
at home
+0.28
away
−0.10
-1012
A +0.38 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
1.25
0.89
0123
A +0.36 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | @ EDM | W | 1 | 0.91 | |
| Oct 1, 2026 | vsEDM | L | 3 | 0.89 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs CGY | W | 1 | 1.09 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs VGK | L | 1 | 0.87 | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | @ CAR | L | 2 | 0.80 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ NJD | L | 0 | 0.96 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ NYR | L | 0 | 0.90 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | @ NYI | L | 1 | 0.91 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | @ FLA | L | 0 | 0.97 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ TBL | L | 1 | 0.97 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | vsCAR | L | 1 | 0.77 | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | vs DET | L | 1 | 1.09 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs MIN | L | 1 | 0.72 | |
| Oct 27, 2026 | @ ANA | W | 2 | 1.28 | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | @ SJS | L | 1 | 1.23 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs TOR | L | 0 | 1.06 | |
| Nov 3, 2026 | vsANA | L | 2 | 1.28 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.00 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ points in his games, 17%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 97% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.