Dylan McIlrath’s points vs a division opponent and vs a team outside the division
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed defensemen, Dylan McIlrath was 0.00 points over vs a division opponent and 0.00 points over vs a team outside the division in 2026-27, 2 games against 2. The plain averages are 0.00 and 0.00, a difference of 0.00.
2 games vs a division opponent is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
vs a division opponent
0.00
vs a team outside the division
0.00
0
A 0.00 difference in points over expected vs a division opponent and vs a team outside the division is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.00
0.00
0
A 0.00 difference in points vs a division opponent and vs a team outside the division is about what you’d expect.
The games
vs a division opponentvs a team outside the division
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | vs PIT | W | 0 | 0.00 | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | vs NYR | W | 0 | 0.00 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs SEA | L | 0 | 0.00 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs BUF | W | 0 | 0.00 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed defensemen in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.00 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for defensemen that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s defensemen’ points in his games, 0%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 98% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.