Devon Toews’ points at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed defensemen, Devon Toews was 0.44 points over at home and 0.23 points over away in 2026-27, 8 games against 8. The plain averages are 1.00 and 0.88, a difference of 0.13.
8 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
at home
+0.44
away
+0.23
01
A +0.20 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
1.00
0.88
00.511.52
A +0.13 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | vs LAK | W | 2 | 0.49 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs STL | W | 0 | 0.46 | |
| Oct 7, 2026 | @ WPG | L | 0 | 0.73 | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | @ CGY | W | 2 | 0.55 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs TOR | L | 1 | 0.65 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | @ DAL | W | 1 | 0.51 | |
| Oct 14, 2026 | vsDAL | L | 0 | 0.53 | |
| Oct 16, 2026 | vs PIT | W | 0 | 0.51 | |
| Oct 19, 2026 | @ PHI | L | 1 | 0.68 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | @ NJD | L | 0 | 0.69 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | vs TBL | W | 2 | 0.64 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ NSH | L | 1 | 0.61 | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | vsNJD | W | 1 | 0.63 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsCGY | W | 2 | 0.60 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | @ CHI | W | 2 | 0.75 | |
| Nov 3, 2026 | @ CBJ | L | 0 | 0.62 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed defensemen in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.00 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for defensemen that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s defensemen’ points in his games, 27%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 98% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.