David Pastrnak’s points at home and away
, ,
Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, David Pastrnak was 0.49 points over at home and 0.03 points under away in 2026-27, 8 games against 8. The plain averages are 1.50 and 1.00, a difference of 0.50. Both back-to-backs were away.
8 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
at home
+0.49
away
−0.03
02
A +0.51 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
1.50
1.00
01234
A +0.50 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | vs NYR | W | 0 | 0.87 | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | @ WPG | W | 2 | 1.23 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ MIN | L | 0 | 0.74 | |
| Oct 5, 2026 | vs OTT | L | 0 | 1.09 | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | vs UTA | W | 4 | 0.95 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs PHI | W | 1 | 1.06 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | @ SJS | W | 1 | 1.15 | |
| Oct 16, 2026 | @ ANA | W | 2 | 1.28 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ LAK | W | 2 | 1.13 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | @ DAL | L | 0 | 0.76 | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | vs NSH | W | 4 | 0.91 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsSJS | W | 1 | 1.13 | |
| Oct 27, 2026 | @ CAR | L | 1 | 0.82 | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | @ STL | L | 0 | 1.10 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs CHI | W | 1 | 1.22 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | vs VGK | W | 1 | 0.86 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.00 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ points in his games, 17%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 97% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.