Cutter Gauthier’s points at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Cutter Gauthier was 0.80 points over at home and 0.24 points under away in 2026-27, 6 games against 8. The plain averages are 1.67 and 0.63, a difference of 1.04. Both back-to-backs were away.
6 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
at home
+0.80
away
−0.24
012
A +1.05 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
1.67
0.63
0123
A +1.04 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | @ VGK | W | 1 | 0.68 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs FLA | W | 3 | 0.77 | |
| Oct 7, 2026 | vs EDM | L | 0 | 0.81 | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | @ WPG | W | 0 | 0.97 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ CGY | W | 0 | 0.90 | |
| Oct 16, 2026 | vs BOS | L | 1 | 0.67 | |
| Oct 19, 2026 | @ NYR | L | 0 | 0.75 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | @ NYI | L | 0 | 0.74 | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | @ NJD | L | 0 | 0.80 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ PHI | W | 1 | 0.91 | |
| Oct 27, 2026 | vs VAN | L | 1 | 1.22 | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | vs BUF | L | 2 | 0.92 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs OTT | W | 3 | 0.80 | |
| Nov 3, 2026 | @VAN | W | 3 | 1.21 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.00 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ points in his games, 14%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 97% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.