Connor McDavid’s points at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Connor McDavid was 0.31 points over at home and 0.78 points over away in 2026-27, 8 games against 8. The plain averages are 2.25 and 2.75, a difference of 0.50.
8 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
at home
+0.31
away
+0.78
02
A −0.47 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
2.25
2.75
12345
A −0.50 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | vs VAN | L | 2 | 2.77 | |
| Oct 1, 2026 | @VAN | W | 5 | 2.59 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs SEA | W | 2 | 2.33 | |
| Oct 7, 2026 | @ ANA | W | 3 | 2.36 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ SJS | W | 1 | 2.04 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | @ LAK | W | 4 | 2.15 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | vs UTA | L | 1 | 1.94 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @UTA | W | 5 | 1.78 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | vs MIN | W | 3 | 1.22 | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | vs CAR | W | 5 | 1.33 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs TOR | L | 2 | 1.93 | |
| Oct 26, 2026 | vs DET | L | 1 | 1.92 | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | vs CGY | W | 2 | 2.06 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ NYI | W | 1 | 1.55 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ NYR | W | 2 | 1.60 | |
| Nov 3, 2026 | @ NJD | L | 1 | 1.69 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.00 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ points in his games, 31%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 97% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.