Cam Talbot’s saves at home and away
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Against his share of what goalies usually saved against his opponents, Cam Talbot was 2.3 saves under at home and 8.0 saves over away in 2026-27, 4 games against 2. The plain averages are 22.5 and 31.0, a difference of 8.5. Both games vs teams over .500 were at home. Both first-half games were at home.
2 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
saves a game over expected
at home
−2.3
away
+8.0
-505
A −10.4 difference in saves over expected at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 14 times in 100.
plain
22.5
31.0
202530
A −8.5 difference in saves at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 14 times in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | saves | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | vs PIT | W | 20 | 24.4 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | vs FLA | L | 17 | 25.0 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ MIN | L | 33 | 25.8 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs VGK | W | 26 | 24.3 | |
| Oct 27, 2026 | @ PHI | W | 29 | 20.1 | |
| Nov 3, 2026 | vs COL | W | 27 | 25.5 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed goalies in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.0 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for goalies that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s goalies’ saves in his games, 97%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 100% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.