Calvin Pickard’s saves vs a division opponent and vs a team outside the division
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Against his share of what goalies usually saved against his opponents, Calvin Pickard was 5.4 saves under vs a division opponent and 3.7 saves under vs a team outside the division in 2026-27, 1 game against 1. The plain averages are 20.0 and 15.0, a difference of 5.0. Expected was 6.7 saves higher vs a division opponent than vs a team outside the division.
One game vs a division opponent is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
saves a game over expected
vs a division opponent
−5.4
vs a team outside the division
−3.7
-4-20
plain
20.0
15.0
161820
The games
vs a division opponentvs a team outside the division
| Side | Date | Game | Result | saves | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | @ WPG | L | 20 | 25.4 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ VAN | W | 15 | 18.7 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed goalies in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.0 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for goalies that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s goalies’ saves in his games, 100%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 100% of the difference the model predicts.