Brandon Bussi’s saves at home and away
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Against his share of what goalies usually saved against his opponents, Brandon Bussi was 4.5 saves under at home and 1.1 saves under away in 2026-27, 2 games against 4. The plain averages are 20.5 and 21.8, a difference of 1.3. Expected was 2.1 saves higher at home than away. Both second-half games were away.
2 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
saves a game over expected
at home
−4.5
away
−1.1
-505
A −3.4 difference in saves over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
20.5
21.8
202530
A −1.3 difference in saves at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | saves | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | vs FLA | L | 19 | 25.8 | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | vs WSH | L | 22 | 24.1 | |
| Oct 6, 2026 | @ MTL | W | 16 | 24.3 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ CHI | W | 24 | 20.3 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ CGY | L | 31 | 25.0 | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | @ EDM | L | 16 | 21.8 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed goalies in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.0 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for goalies that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s goalies’ saves in his games, 100%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 100% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.