Auston Matthews’ points at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Auston Matthews was 0.08 points over at home and 0.65 points over away in 2026-27, 9 games against 8. The plain averages are 1.22 and 1.88, a difference of 0.65. All 3 division games were at home. Both games vs teams at .500 or under were away.
8 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
at home
+0.08
away
+0.65
02
A −0.57 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
1.22
1.88
01234
A −0.65 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | vs MTL | L | 0 | 1.17 | |
| Sep 30, 2026 | vs NYI | W | 0 | 1.03 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs OTT | L | 1 | 1.21 | |
| Oct 6, 2026 | vs NSH | W | 4 | 1.03 | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | @ VGK | L | 1 | 0.97 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ COL | W | 4 | 1.10 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | @ UTA | L | 2 | 1.16 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | vs BUF | L | 1 | 1.30 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsNYI | L | 0 | 1.07 | |
| Oct 19, 2026 | vs SJS | W | 3 | 1.35 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | @ CBJ | W | 2 | 1.14 | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | vs NYR | W | 0 | 0.93 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ EDM | W | 1 | 1.04 | |
| Oct 26, 2026 | @ CGY | L | 1 | 1.30 | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | @ SEA | L | 3 | 1.34 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ VAN | W | 1 | 1.71 | |
| Nov 3, 2026 | vsUTA | L | 2 | 1.21 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.00 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ points in his games, 19%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 97% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.